‘3D Printing’, or ‘additive manufacturing’ as it is also known, has the potential to become the biggest single disruptive phenomenon to impact global industry since assembly lines were introduced in early twentieth century America.
New technologies which are currently being developed could revolutionize production techniques, resulting in a significant proportion of manufacturing becoming automated and removing reliance on large and costly work forces. This in turn could lead to a reversal of the trend of globalization which has characterized industry and consumption over the last few decades, itself predicated on the trade-off between transportation and labor costs.
Globalization has benefited shipping lines, airlines and freight forwarders enormously as vast quantities of consumer goods are moved internationally to Western markets from the Far East. Consequently any challenge to globalization must be viewed as a threat to the global transportation industry. However, as with all disruptive technologies, it also offers opportunities. This briefing takes a look at the new technology, assesses the chances of its widespread adoption and examines its implications for the logistics industry.
What is 3D Printing?
3D Printing was originally developed as an automated method of producing prototypes. Although there are several competing technologies, most work on the basis of building up layers of material (sometimes plastic, ceramics or even metal powders) using a computer aided design. Hence, it is referred to as an ‘additive’ process; each layer is ‘printed’ until a three dimensional product is created.
The logic for using 3D Printing for prototypes is compelling. Traditional ‘reductive’ manufacturing techniques (where materials are removed) can take longer and are much more expensive. Mechanical parts, shoes, fashion items and accessories and other consumer goods, can all be printed for review by the designer or engineers, and revisions printed equally as easily. Whereas mass production is viable due to economies of scale, it is uneconomical for ‘one offs’ and prototypes. 3D Printing will remove this differential, where every item produced is an original (or perfect copy) and tooling for one is as cheap as tooling for many.
The final 3D Printed product also has other benefits. Products can be lighter, but just as strong. There is also less wastage. In comparison traditional reductive manufacturing is highly inefficient in the use of materials.
The way in which each product is individually manufactured means that it is ideal for ‘mass customization’ techniques. Consumers will, in theory, be able to have a much greater say in the final format of the product which they are buying, and have it manufactured to their precise specifications.
3D Printing: Coming Very Soon to a Business Near You
Find out what our poll results reveal about the future of 3D printing in your supply chain
It is highly likely that 3D printing will play a key role in the supply chain in the next three to five years, according to our poll that asked our readers, supply chain experts, “when do you think 3D printing will play a role in your supply chain?”
When asked whether 3D printing would be adopted in the next three years, 22 percent were confident. This could suggest that many companies are already looking into the possibility and are investing in the process for the future. 20 percent believe implementing 3D printing across the majority of supply chains would take a bit longer, becoming a reality in the next five years.
20 percent of respondents were unsure if or when they would be adopting 3D printing, but were interested to learn more about the process. Only 8 percent felt that it currently plays a role in their supply chain, which is in-line with reports that just a handful of industries have confidently adopted the method so far. The aerospace, automotive and mobile telecoms industries use 3D printing to produce strong but light components and the healthcare industry are using it to print artificial joints and dental crowns.
Limitations to 3D printing processes, such as restrictions on materials, speed, and a lack of working knowledge, could be the reasons why it might take longer for the process to be fully adopted. However, with advantages such as greater personalization, fewer waste products and greater benefits for the environment, and localized manufacturing and delivery, research suggests supply chain managers are increasingly looking to invest in the method.
As more and more research into the application of the 3D printing becomes available, SCM predicts that it will play a much more prominent role in future supply chains, and it will take less than 10 years for the method to be implemented much more widely.
Source: DHL Supply Chain Matters
Can 3D Printing Revolutionize Global Industry?
There is obviously an enormous leap between a manufacturing process which can presently produce one-offs and one that can replace large scale manufacturing.
However, in theory, there is no reason why advances in technology could not increase the speed of production and reduce unit costs.
If this were to happen there would be many consequences, bringing about relatively minor (and then potentially major) changes to the global manufacturing industry.
For instance, 3D Printing is already very good at producing products (even with moving parts) which previously would have required the assembly of multiple components. By eliminating the assembly phase there will be huge savings for the manufacturer in terms of labor costs, but also potentially in the removal of storage, handling and distribution costs involved in bringing together the relevant components.
However systemic change will only occur if the automation of production rebalances global supply chain costs. The falling proportion of total costs made up by labor in the West would take away the rationale for producing goods in remote, low cost markets (as relative transportation costs rise).
Instead these manufacturing facilities could be sited close to the customer in Europe or North America where there would be fewer quality control issues and more responsiveness to market needs. Lower batch quantities would consolidate these benefits.
3D Printing, combined with efficient manufacturing, will revolutionize the principles established in the first Industrial Revolution. Not only will local manufacturing re-establish itself close to end markets, but it will allow the flexibility to reconfigure in response to changing consumer demands. The nature of manufacturing will be very different from traditional models in which it takes established production plants months (or even years) to retool.
The philosophy of manufacturing in which products are made precisely to customer demand could have big implications in certain sectors.
For instance, in the healthcare vertical small ‘one-off’ production runs of drugs/compounds will reduce inventory holding costs. But this capability will also enable the rapid transport of entire production plants to areas where large amounts of drugs may be needed in times of emergency (i.e. pandemics or natural disasters).
Looking even further into the future, some household products could actually be manufactured in the consumer’s home, once the cost of 3D printing technology has become affordable. This would have even greater implications for the logistics industry – this time on a domestic rather than international basis. This is not as far off as may be thought. 3D Printers for consumers can already be purchased for just a few hundred dollars.
What Are The Implications For The Logistics Industry?
The implications of this new manufacturing technology for the logistics industry could be massive:
- Potentially a proportion of goods which were previously produced in China or other Asia markets could be ‘near-sourced’ to North America and Europe. This would reduce shipping and air cargo volumes.
- The ‘mass customisation’ of products would mean that inventory levels fall, as goods are made to order. This would have the effect of reducing warehousing requirements.
- There would be fewer opportunities for logistics suppliers to be involved in companies’ upstream supply chains, as manufacturing processes are increasingly re-bundled within a single facility. Tiers of component suppliers are done away with, as is the need for supplier villages, line side supply etc.
- Downstream logistics would also be affected. Build-to-order production strategies could fundamentally impact the manufacturer-wholesaler-retailer relationship. In the future the shopping experience could also be vastly different. In some sectors, retailers will either cease to exist or become ‘shop windows’ for manufacturers, keeping no stock of their own. Orders are fulfilled directly by the manufacturer, and delivered to the home of the consumer.
- A major new sector of the logistics industry would emerge dealing with the storage and movement of the raw materials which ‘feed’ the 3D Printers. As 3D Printers become more affordable to the general public, the home delivery market of these materials would increase.
- The Service Parts Logistics sector would be one of the first to be affected. At present billions are spent on holding stock to supply products as diverse as cars to x-ray machines. In some cases huge amount of redundancy is built into supply chains to enable parts to be dispatched in a very short timescale to get machines up and running again as fast as possible. It doesn’t take much imagination to understand the benefits for a service parts engineer of being able to download a part design from an online library, 3D Print it and then fit it within a very short time window. This would make global and national parts warehouses as well as forward stock locations unnecessary to fulfilling customer needs.
The Logistics Company of the Future
The changing supply chain dynamics will lead to the evolution of a new type of logistics company resembling a ‘4PL’, or service management company, as much as anything else. Their businesses will comprise a mix of software development, delivery services, partner relationship management, contract management and brainpower.
The new logistics company will design solutions comprising demand planning, manufacturing, delivery, market monitoring, service parts management and return and recycling services. In essence, they will become Product Life-Cycle Management service providers.
This is a big opportunity for the major industry players that have the resources to establish these new organisations.
The Service Parts Logistics industry will be either transformed or decimated by 3D manufacturing - or perhaps both! With small 3D Printing machines available, operations in remote locations – or even in an engineer’s van – will only need electronic libraries of designs available to them on a local computer. They can then call up the design of the spare part required and immediately print it. Obsolete parts could simply be scanned in 3D, fixed in the computer’s memory and the new part printed. The implications for inventory are clear.
Conclusion
If the new technology is to completely transform global industry, 3D Printing must be able to mass produce goods in the same volumes as traditional manufacturing techniques. At present the jury is still out on whether this is feasible. Some in the sector (such as GE) foresee a time when a whole engine, for example, could be printed. Others believe that at least in the medium term, hybrid solutions will develop, which combine new technologies with more traditional techniques.
However what 3D Printing is certainly not is science fiction. Its ability to create strong but light parts has been identified by the aerospace sector; components for the automotive sector are already being printed and the technology is being adopted by the mobile telecoms sector.
It has been estimated that in 2012 up to 30% of finished products already involve some kind of 3D printing. By 2016, this is expected to rise to 50% and by 2020 potentially up to 80%.
At the moment the following areas are in line for transformation:
Now
- Production Prototypes
- Small manufacturing runs of High Value/High Complexity products
- Dental/Aural healthcare forms/aids
Soon
- Almost all service parts
- Complex high volume/high value forms
- Products related to fashion/trends that have a high volume/short lifespan profile
Later
- Mass produced fast moving consumer goods
It is difficult to see that industry will undergo complete transformation for many years – probably decades – to come. What could happen, though, is that that some sectors are penetrated by the technology at a much earlier stage, such as the manufacture of spare parts. In this case, the most enlightened logistics companies could even become early adopters of the technologies – investing in the 3D Printers and providing facilities for engineers – rather than kicking against the progress. This would also provide a way of leveraging their capital and their own technological capabilities.
It is clear that if the larger logistics companies delay or ignore the implications of this trend, they are vulnerable to new kinds of organisations or associations that will match or leap ahead of their capabilities for very little outlay.
About the Authors
John Manners-Bell MSc FCILT, CEO of Transport Intelligence, has over two decades experience working in and analyzing the global logistics industry. He is a member of the World Economic Forum’s Logistics and Supply Chain Global Agenda Council and has advised a wide range of governmental organisations and industry bodies.
Ken Lyon is a long term innovator in the development of collaborative supply chain networks and communities. He is a recognized industry expert, experienced public speaker, government adviser and technology consultant.
Future scenarios
The biggest change induced by 3D printing may happen in global value chains and logistics. Nobody knows what is really going to happen, but it is wise to keep the eyes open and be ready for change.
Globalization has been a major industrial trend in which low labour costs have driven companies to set up their production sites in low cost countries, thus creating growth of cargo shipping between continents. The balance between transportation and labour cost may change. A new trend in the future may be globalization, where the global business is supported by local 3D production that optimizes the business through speed, quality or personalization.
Part of the global production may shift back to wealthy countries, leading to decreased shipping volumes of goods between Asia and other continents, at the same time increasing the shipping volumes of raw materials between continents.
Another potential change scenario is the optimisation of cost and operational efficiency of global logistics, once the local production of spare parts becomes technically and economically feasible. The local printing ecosystem may produce the critical spare parts quickly on a need basis, thus minimising warehousing needs. This would change service parts logistics and even decrease downtime due to better availability of critical spare parts. This would also create new roles in the value chain: CAD model creation for spare parts, local printing business and digital distribution network of the CAD models.
Source: Biggest change in manufacturing since the industrial revolution?
Related: Supply Chains and Third-Party Logistics Make Room for 3D Printing
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